今日は大晦日、よいお年をお迎え下さい!

いよいよ今年も押し詰まって、今日は大晦日です。例年と同じく、Financial Times から Forecasting the world in 2017 の画像を引用して上の通りです。以下の21の問いが発せられています。

• Will Article 50 be triggered by the end of the first quarter?
• Will Marine Le Pen win the French presidency?
• Will Angela Merkel win re-election in Germany?
• Will the Iran nuclear deal collapse?
• Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin do a Syria deal?
• Will President Trump build the Mexican border wall?
• Will Isis be destroyed as a significant global force?
• Will Jacob Zuma remain president of South Africa?
• Will North Korea successfully test a nuclear-capable missile?
• Will China allow its currency to devalue by more than 10 per cent?
• Will Venezuela default on its debt?
• Will the UK's annual growth rate fall below 1 per cent in 2017?
• Will the Fed funds rate be higher than 1.5 per cent at the end of 2017?
• Will the S&P 500 finish the year above 2300 (roughly its current level)?
• Will oil finish over $50?
• Will EU inflation be 1.5 per cent or higher by year end?
• Will Apple be the most valuable company in the world at year end 2017?
• Will Uber go public?
• Will either Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein or JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon step down in 2017?
• Will a major European bank fail in 2017?
• Tiebreaker question for the online prediction contest: how many Grammy awards will Beyoncé win this year?

最後の問いを除いて、yes or no で答えられるんですが、以外な回答として、6番目の問い、すなわち、トランプ大統領はメキシコとの国境に壁を築くか? に対しては yes の回答が寄せられています。私にはやや不可解です。なお、今年は日本に関するテーマはありませんでした。ちょっぴり残念!?

何はともあれ、みなさま、
よいお年をお迎え下さい。